Independent validation · Trust / Retest / Reject

Quantum claims,
tested to destruction.

Vendors say quantum advantage is here. Skeptics say nothing matters until fault tolerance. Both answers are lazy. The question that matters is whether a specific claim survives contact with real hardware, real statistics, and a real threat model — answered in writing, with evidence, in plain English.

RECORD · 14-BIT ECDLP · Q-DAY CONFIRMED · SOLVEDRETRACTED BY AUTHOR · FALSIFICATION PUBLISHED

Receipts

Every number below is verifiable.

258 minQPU execution time on IBM quantum hardware
1,723Hardware jobs run, logged, and re-audited
$24,720Equivalent compute at IBM's published $96/min rate
2Of my own multi-year projects falsified & retracted

Usage independently visible in IBM Quantum Platform analytics · job IDs published with every result

Why trust this

The credential is the retraction.

In 2025 I pushed quantum ECDLP solving on IBM hardware from 6-bit to 12-bit, then produced a 14-bit toy-curve result with Regev's algorithm. Inside Project Eleven's Q-Day Prize — the challenge ultimately won by a 15-bit solve — my 14-bit submission was privately confirmed and awarded a consolation prize.

Then I ran the null test it should have faced on day one: randomized data fed through my own classical post-processing. The pipeline "solved" it anyway. The result wasn't quantum. It was the post-processing.

I retracted the result, along with twenty months of methodology built on it, and published the falsification — the first public falsification of a prize-confirmed submission. A second multi-year experiment died under the same instrument. The full autopsy, artifact by artifact, is in the Quantum Post-Mortem.

I know how convincing bad quantum evidence looks, because I built it, believed it, and killed it. Most vendor claims have never faced that test. Yours will.

Every claim this practice makes carries a grade in the open Research Ledger — the same scorecard we sell, pointed at ourselves first.

The instrument

Five failure modes we catch.

Timeline artifacts

Results built on queue or file timestamps instead of actual QPU execution times.

Pipeline artifacts

"Quantum" signal that is really classical post-processing, extraction bugs, or verification-oracle brute force.

Post-selection

Endpoints, exclusions, and controls chosen after seeing the data.

Statistical theater

Drift, autocorrelation, and uncorrected multiple comparisons dressed up as significance.

Unfalsifiable claims

Results no outcome could have killed — which means no outcome can confirm them.

Two ways in

Claim-level verdicts. Landscape-level intelligence.

Fixed scope · 10 business days

Quantum Claim Reality Audit

$5,000 · limited to 3 concurrent engagements

Send one vendor claim, deck, white paper, NISQ result, or board question. You get a defensible answer in writing.

  • Claim map — the assertion in testable terms
  • Threat-model check against your risk timing
  • Evidence review: hardware vs. simulator, benchmarks, post-processing
  • Failure-mode analysis
  • One-page board memo: ignore, monitor, test, fund, or reject
  • The 5–10 questions to ask before signing
See the full scope
Free · Private intelligence layer

First Light Syndicate

The Signal Flare · milestone-dependency intelligence

Quantum advantage isn't a date on a calendar. It's a dependency chain. We track the milestones that actually matter — not the timelines that don't.

  • Milestone tracking: what moved, what it means, what's next
  • Announcement translation: the substance behind press releases
  • Dependency maps: what gates what
  • Position analysis, stripped of marketing
Join the Syndicate

Incentives, disclosed

We sell analysis, and nothing else. No migration products, no hardware, no tokens, no vendor referral fees. A verdict of "reject" costs us nothing and a verdict of "fund" earns us nothing — which is the only condition under which either verdict is worth paying for. We do not sell quantum optimism or quantum cynicism. We sell quantum defensibility.